SAF: The fuel of the future.
The business that must turn Africa into a fuels player.
Now that many people have already returned from their vacations and may have had to use an airplane to go to/return from them; we should know the level of pollution of an airplane compared to a car, a way out towards another type of economy and a future business supported by the sustainability label.
Let’s start at the beginning. The level of pollution produced by airplanes on each trip can be compared to that produced by cars in terms of carbon emissions per passenger and kilometer traveled:
-Airplane: Approximately 285 grams of CO2 per passenger-kilometer traveled.
-Automobile: Approximately 55 grams of CO2 per passenger-kilometer traveled.
According to these figures, airplanes produce far more carbon emissions per passenger-kilometer traveled than automobiles. Specifically, airplanes produce more than five times the amount of carbon emissions per passenger-kilometer traveled compared to automobiles. Therefore, in terms of carbon emissions, airplanes are a less environmentally friendly mode of transport than cars, especially for short distances.
But if we compare this in total terms, i.e. not per passenger, but taking into account the volume of aircraft per day and the total volume of cars per day, the result changes substantially:
Total greenhouse gas emissions from air transport (both passenger and freight) currently account for around 2–3% of all man-made emissions.
In contrast, total emissions from road transport, including cars, buses and freight trucks, account for almost 20% globally.
Thus, if one compares the absolute total emissions generated by all air flights worldwide with the emissions from the entire global road vehicle fleet, road transport currently produces 6–10 times more greenhouse gas emissions than global aviation.
The main reasons why cars generate more total pollution today despite aircraft having higher emissions per trip are:
-Total number: there are more than 1 billion vehicles on the road compared to tens of thousands of aircraft.
-Frequency of use: cars and trucks are used much more frequently per day than airplanes.
-Shorter trips: the average duration of car or bus trips is less than 16 km, compared to hundreds or thousands of airplane trips.
However, emissions from the aviation industry are increasing rapidly, by almost 5% per year, so the gap may continue to narrow over time if road transport emissions manage to stabilize and/or decrease.
Now that we have the context, let’s squeeze the lemon!
What is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)?
It refers to aviation fuel derived from renewable sources that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional petroleum-derived aviation fuel.
Some key points:
-Manufactured from sustainable feedstocks, such as used cooking oil, municipal waste and agricultural waste.
-Expected to reduce CO2 emissions over its life cycle by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel.
-Approved for use in blends of up to 50% with conventional jet fuel by major aircraft manufacturers.
-Currently 2–3 times more expensive than standard jet fuel.
-Total use of SAF expected to reach 2% of total aviation fuel demand by 2025.
-Key driver for the aviation industry to reduce emissions in line with zero reduction targets by 2050.
That said, the aviation industry sees SAF as crucial to reducing the carbon footprint of flying, along with improvements such as aircraft efficiency and carbon pricing systems.
How is this fuel generated?
This fuel can be produced by various different processes using renewable raw materials as feedstock.
The most common are:
-Biomass/Liquid fuels from waste: waste fats, used cooking oils and municipal solid waste are put through a Fischer-Tropsch or HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) process to produce liquid hydrocarbons. The composition of this fuel is very similar to that of normal jet fuel.
-Energy-to-liquid fuels: They use renewable electricity to split water to produce hydrogen. The hydrogen is then combined with residual carbon oxides to create e-kerosene using the Fischer-Tropsch method again. These are called electrofuels or power-to-liquids.
-Alcohol to Jet: Ethanol originally obtained from cellulosic or plant materials is subjected to additional chemical steps to convert it into longer-chain alkanes suitable as fuel for higher efficiency reactors. Still under development.
-Direct sugar to hydrocarbon: Fermentation of plant sugars with a modified microbe that segregates reactor fuel molecules directly before final separation/purification, bypassing intermediate alcohols. It offers a potential route in the future.
-Hybrid methods are also being developed that combine biological fermentation and downstream catalysis to generate specific fuel compounds from renewable inputs.
In general, sustainable aviation fuel processes use renewable biological materials, municipal waste/plastics (garbage!) to drive conversion into customized aviation fuel via chemical and biological methods.
Which countries produce this fuel and what is the demand for it?
The main producing continents/countries are:
-North America: The United States is a major player in SAF production, with several projects planned and operational in the country. Companies such as Gevo Inc, DG Fuels LLC and World Energy are among the main players in production in North America.
-Europe: The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and other European countries are actively involved in SAF production. The European region is a major contributor to the growth of production capacity, with several projects in various stages of development, such as feasibility, construction and approval.
-Asia: China, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are among the major countries in Asia involved in SAF production. The region is expected to drive exceptional growth in production capacity between now and 2030, with several projects planned and under development.
-Other regions: Countries in the Middle East, South America, Oceania and Africa are also part of the global production landscape, but not if too successful so far, apart from Brazil.
Current global demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is still quite small, but growing rapidly as airlines and governments announce ambitious targets.
Some key facts about current demand:
-Total global use of this fuel was about 125 million liters (33 million gallons) in 2021.
-This represents only about 0.15% of total global jet fuel demand, which is more than 300 billion liters per year.
-Some forecasts suggest that its consumption will increase 200-fold to more than 25 billion liters per year by 2030.
-Major airline groups have set a target of using at least 2% of fuel from SAF sources by 2025, and reaching 10% of total jet fuel demand by 2030.
-If the 10% target is reached, demand would increase almost 100-fold from current levels to more than 30 billion liters per year in this decade.
In addition, several countries have implemented mandatory SAF blends of 1–2% from 2025, which will further boost investment and production.
With all this prespective, who I think could/should give a blow on the table and move the players?…Africa
At the moment, there are no production plants for this fuel on the African continent. However, there is great interest and potential for SAF production in Africa. The European Union (EU) is looking at developing infrastructure projects in Africa through its Global Gateway infrastructure fund. The EU has committed to devote half of its €300 billion infrastructure plan to Africa and is studying possible co-financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments for production there. The EU plans to launch a €4 million capacity building project to support feasibility studies and certification of SAF in 11 African countries and India. Several companies, such as Eni (Italy), Linde (Germany), Sasol (South Africa) and Topsoe (Denmark), are showing interest and making investments in African SAF and biofuels, indicating the growing potential for production on the continent.
Despite the current lack of production, Africa’s vast land mass and the availability of feedstocks, such as energy crops and residues from other industries, present significant potential for the production of this fuel so I believe the key factors are:
-Abundant biomass resources. Agricultural residues and/or non-food crops for biofuels.
-Growing aviation market. Increasing air transport.
-Climate change impact and mitigation. Increased vulnerability to climate change on the continent.
-Energy security. Reduction of oil imports.
-Economic development. Creation of direct and indirect jobs.
-International collaboration. Global climate objectives.
To conclude and knowing the era we are dealing with; how could AI improve our processes in the production of SAF?
-Fuel Demand Prediction. Predictive Analytics: Uses machine learning algorithms to predict future fuel demand based on historical trends, market conditions, and seasonal factors.
-Supply Chain Optimization. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems: Integrated with AI, they can better forecast and manage fuel supply needs. Logistics Optimization: AI tools that plan delivery and refueling routes, considering variables such as traffic, weather, and demand.
-Production Process Control. Advanced Control Systems: Apply AI to optimize operating conditions in SAF production, such as temperature, pressure, and flow rates. Predictive Maintenance: Use sensor data and machine learning to predict and prevent equipment failures.
-Fuel Quality Management. Real-Time Quality Analysis: AI tools that monitor and analyze fuel quality in real time during the production and refining process.
-Emissions and Sustainability Management. Life Cycle Analysis Tools: Assess the environmental impact of fuel throughout its life cycle, from production to consumption. Carbon Footprint Optimization: AI that helps calculate and minimize carbon emissions associated with fuel production and use.
-Integration with Renewable Energy Systems. Energy Management: Use of AI to integrate SAF production with renewable energy sources, optimizing energy use and reducing costs.
Intelligent automation and modeling tools help drive the feasibility and speed of replacing more aviation fuel with sustainable aviation options, and Africa already has many technologically savvy people and a lot of desire for development.
Conclusión.
The production of SAF is a global effort, with countries in North America, Europe, Asia and other regions actively participating in the development and manufacture of this sustainable alternative to traditional jet fuel. With respect to current demand, SAF represents less than 0.15% of total jet fuel demand due to current high costs, but government incentives and airline emissions reduction targets are intended to drive a huge increase in production and adoption over the next 10 years, with at least 10% of global jet fuel demand by 2030 if targets are met. This implies a nearly 100-fold growth in less than a decade and Africa could take the lead mainly due to its biomass resources, vulnerability to climate change, reduced energy dependence and economic development………….now Africa just needs to bet on it!
A clue for producers of mechanical elements. What is the common mechanical element in the whole phase of the production of this fuel? ………… the pumps! Used during raw material handling, production processes, refining, blending and distribution.
#SAF#BusinessAnalitics#AI#Africa
